A curious possibility is emerging from the recent Republican “midterm convention” in Dallas: President Donald Trump may once again be underestimated by the very people who have spent a decade trying to understand and explain him to the world. From events leading to the U.S.-Denmark-Greenland new security arrangement announced last week, the point may become clearer, but that is another story.
This is not an argument that the Republican Party is certain to win the U.S. mid-term elections in November. Available polling says the elections would be difficult for Republicans, and the normal logic of mid-term elections works against a sitting president’s party. Recent polls also give Democrats an advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
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The argument is different. Much political commentary on Trump makes the same analytical error of measuring him against the rules of a political game that he does not appear to believe in. Other players may again underestimate his capacity to alter the political equation.
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